2010 Wheat Crop Comments
3/2/2010
Welcome to your one-stop source for wheat information, where wheat producers across the country communicate with each other and provide up-to-date information about their crop.
Keep your acreage, weather and crop comments coming in! Use this link to send us your comments about your wheat production and marketing decisions. Be sure to send us your photos and videos! Comments will be edited for brevity and clarity. (Please keep your comments crop-related.)
Here's a sampling of what some folks are saying:
- 3/2 - Livingston/LaSalle counties, Ill.: Winter is still hanging on. Received 6-8 inches of wet snow last week. Put a real nice blanket on the wheat and alfalfa fields. Wish we could have had one similar all winter long, but wasn't the case. This week is bringing a slow melting of the snow. Very little frost in the ground, only in the bare spots. Any field with much crop residue has no frost. Most of the corn fields had no tillage done last fall. There will have to be some tillage to level out the ruts and auger wagon paths, but probably not much else.
Still too early to evaluate wheat fields. Too wet to get out on them to see anything. Windshield inspections are cautiously optimistic. Some fields have water running across them in low spots. Soils are still very saturated. Forecast is for temps in the 40's by the weekend.
- 3/2 - Adams County, Wash.: We grow soft white and club wheat with a touch of hard red winter. The crops look very good at this time despite a 50 plus mph wind on October 4, 2009 that closed an interstate.
We have had unseasonably warm weather, after last year's record snow fall. (123 inches) We had 55 plus degrees today and have had a few nights in February without freezing. Moisture is adequate and many are getting out and into the fields.
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3/2 - Southeast North Dakota: We are west of the Red River Valley. Land rents are still reasonable and fair. A land real estate broker offered me a quarter of CRP land located right along a road we travel to get from field to field for $1250/ acre, with 3 years remaining on the CRP contract at $50/yr. There is no way that can work raising wheat, barley or canola. When will this land madness stop? If history repeats, land prices will fall about 40 to 50% from these levels. Remember the 1980's? Values are high now because those with cash can't get a decent return, and those that are borrowing are paying a relatively low rate. But interest rates can and will go up in response the the Federal financial situation. Even I (a Norwegian) can figure out what will happen to land prices when that occurs.
- 2/25 - Lewistown, Mont.: Feels like it could be a late spring here in Montana; however, the weatherman does say that it could start warming up. If you’re a believer in the NASS, they report that Montana's winter wheat acreage will be down 22% compared to last year. That number would seem right, with what I have seen here, locally, in central Montana. Most people who seed winter wheat did not seed their intended acreage, not because of excessive moisture, but more the fact that it was extremely dry last fall, with lots of grasshoppers and cheatgrass that didn't sprout. I know that the majority of the winter wheat that went in here last fall did not have a lot of time to root and is going to be susceptible to winterkill. We have winter wheat fields that are completely bare and 6 feet of snow in the coulees. It is going to be a while before any of the winter wheat breaks dormancy, so we'll just expect the worst and hope for the best.
- 2/22 - McPherson, Kan.: We had another half foot of snow forecast for this weekend. Ended up with the .57" of moisture this morning, but is was primarily sleet and wintery mix with 1.3" on the ground. If I had my choice, I would have saved it until August, but the weather and international politics are two things I have fairly little control over.
I have been quipping this winter that I never did finish drilling wheat last fall: I just quit. I had about 5% more that I really intended to plant and another 5% that I would have liked to have planted if the weather had allowed. Meeting talk sounds like those were typical numbers here. The "prevented planting" provisions on fall crop insurance are not worth much to me, I will plant a few more acres of soybeans and milo this spring instead.
My wheat is looking fairly good, especially considering how poor the conditions were when I mudded it in. Most of it tillered and had good roots when it went into dormancy. Even the stuff I put in the ground the last day of reduced crop insurance coverage (Nov 14) seems to have all germinated. It didn't have a chance to develop any ground cover, but looks OK. Of course, my yield expectations are lower for anything drilled that late around here. Then again it could be just the thing if we get a very late freeze.
I normally get my herbicide on in January, but not this year. Still too wet, and spraying snow does not do anyone any good. I have visions of co-op still working on wheat acres when they want to start on corn pre-plant. We have several more weeks before that is reality though.
- 2/18 - Vernon, Texas: All of the wheat in our area got planted. Ours was a little later than we'd like due to wet weather, but we got it all in. The crop is looking good. It is still small, but I am very optimistic because of all the moisture we have. This time last year we were in the middle of a drought. We will start to put out our topdress N and herbicides in the next couple of weeks, whenever the ground will hold equipment. Now we just need some warmer weather.
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-- Vernon, Texas
(Have any photos of the crops on your farm? Send them to AgWeb and have them posted on Crop Comments! Be sure to include a caption.)
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- 2/18 - Wilbur, Wash.: All the acres intended for wheat were planted last fall in E WA. There were some untimely rains at seeding time, and some was reseeded. It is looking very good right now. We have had recent rains and unseasonal warm temps so the grassy weeds should start to show.
- 2/18 - Minto, N.D.:My wheat seed is all safe in the bin, waiting for the ground to thaw. So far this year we are planning to plant Samson, Briggs, and Faller.
- 2/11 - Whitman County, Wash.: I was able to do some field scouting today and the winter wheat in this area is enjoying an open and mild winter. Overall the stands are beautiful, with the wheat on fallow ground looking the best. The wheat that followed legumes is rowed up and averaging three leaves. Not to bad considering it did not emerge until December due to dry soil conditions. The forecast looks to remain mild for the next ten days, with highs in the upper 40's! A blast of cold air from the north could be devastating. We are definitely not in a surplus of moisture. The tile lines at 36" are not flowing very full at all. We are lacking sub-moisture. A good part of it went in the creeks when the ground was frozen and we had heavy rains in early Jan. We will need timely rains, especially in June to produce any sizeable yield and quality crop. I plan to start soil testing next week when the weather allows, and will report on 2' moisture levels in the soil.
- 2/9 - Versailles, Mo.: Here in central Missouri the wheat that was planted was mostly late and some of it just barely emerged. The warmer soil and the current snow cover is the best thing we could have. Several producers have put a touch of N on before the snow with the hope that if we get a little warm weather in February the N will be there if the conditions are right. Appropriate seed treatment at planting seems to be helping survival of the wheat under stress. I am finding very few actually dead and brown plants if the seed was treated.
- 2/8 - Wilbur, Wash.: The weather is the big story in the Pacific Northwest this year! Very mild temps with some scattered rain. There is some soil erosion after the runoff events we have had through the winter. It seems to be worse south of Hwy. 2 and in Spokane County. Field cultivators and tractors are coming out of the shed, looks like some are getting ready for spring work. Ordered a load of fuel last week and the price fell a nickel. Wish I could buy fuel like I sell wheat, at the bottom of the market! Wheat looks great and has grown some all winter. Let's hope for rain in June!
- 2/8 - McPherson, Kan.: We have another half foot of snow forecast this weekend. There is still about an inch of snow covering 75% of the ground from the last system. That should keep us in good shape for a few more weeks.
I often quip that the two things that affect my farm the most are the weather and politics, and I do not have any control over either of them. I spent a couple days in Topeka (the state capital) this week. Budget is definitely the issue, and all of the "easy" solutions have already been implemented.
- 2/1 - McPherson, Kan.: Winter returned Jan 28. I ended up with about half a foot of snow and half an inch of moisture. Also dropped back to the single digits for temps. There was little wind (at least by KS standards) so the snow is fairly even and should have protected the dormant wheat plants.
- 2/1 - Livingston/LaSalle County Ill.: Generally seed 1200-1500 acres annually for myself and custom planting for neighbors. In 09 planted 450 acres total. Wet spring lead to delayed harvest. Got my wheat planted by insurance date into good seed bed. All germinated, and is poking through. Not much heat after seeding. Looked decent until Christmas week when it received 4-5 inches of rain follwed by sub-zero temps. Then received 6-8 inches of snow. Earlier this week, snow was melting off, and today is getting freezing rain, temps near 30. Gonna be interesting. Have torn wheat crop in 2 of 3 last wheat crops. Probably going to be looking for straw to bale/buy to fill contracts.
- 1/25 - McPherson, Kan.: My father-in-law was a big believer in rain 90-100 days after a fog. He would mark it on his calendar and it was amazingly accurate. Central KS set a record for consecutive (or nearly consecutive) days of dense fog last week. Does that mean a wet April again for 2010? The January Top Producer article "Lower Weather Risk Ahead" says that after two wet years, there will be diminished precipitation in the Corn Belt. Granted, I have fairly low expectations for any forecast more than 3 days out.
My other ponder for the week was on carbon trading, also highlighted in the January Top Producer. Ethanol has been ruled as less carbon friendly since twice as many new acres of land will be brought into production in other parts of the world to replace those crop acres used by the US ethanol industry. Yet, cap-and-trade advocates actively promote carbon payments for reforesting North American cropland as a way to reduce global atmospheric carbon. How does this acreage loss not cause the same global crop acreage expansion as ethanol acres?
- 1/25 - Walsh county, northeast North Dakota: The recent drop in grain prices has really slowed down the movement of grain to the elevators. This part of the country is sitting on an enormous amount of wheat, much of it in the 11.8% to 13.0% protein range. We did not want to take the big discounts, hoping that by closer to spring the discounts would become less severe. Looking back, we should have sold about 3 weeks ago and stayed short in the futures market. But the elevator grain buyers tell me that we are stuck with the discounts until the market has a feel for what the protein levels are in the coming winter wheat crops.
In casual conversation with growers from around the state, I think wheat acres in ND will be down some. Many are buying more canola and sunflower and flax seed than before. Edible beans will also be a good option. The malt barley contracts were ranging from $4.15 to $3.60 (which isn't anything great) but now they have dropped about $.55 in the past two weeks also. Maybe beer prices will follow the barley down (?).....Our farm will drop wheat acres from 2700 last year to about 2000 this year, and increase canola, sunflower, dry bean, and pea acres. All our wheat will seeded to the higher protein varieties. Barley will remain about the same.
- 1/25 - Wilbur, Wash.: Our wheat is dormant and waiting for growing weather. I did some soil probing and found 6" of frost so any moisture we may get will still run off. More time is spent in the office preparing yr end tax info, and watching energy prices like a hawk!
- 1/22 - Jackson County, Mich.: Farmers need to come to realize that the USDA numbers are correct. I have been in attendance at many seminars/workshops this winter and the one comment that I hear over and over again is, "I can’t believe how good my corn crop was. It was one of my best ever." I know on our farm we had some of our best yields ever! People need to realize that all we hear are the bad reports. All we hear about is the 48lb TW, 10% VT, and $1,500 dockage for a 1,800 bushel load of grain.
Also we need to realize that its not going to be any better next year. With the millions of acres of wheat that never got planted you have to think that most of that will go to corn, but don't think that wheat prices are going to go up. The only chance that we have is if oil goes up even more and ethanol becomes a more viable option. Most ethanol plants are not running at full capacity at the moment and some are simply sitting idle. According to Dr. Jim Hilker there is a 50% chance that the price will be below $3.68 and a 70% chance that the price will be below $3.85. You can still make money with $3.50 corn. We plan on planting more corn next year just because on our farm there is still money in it than growing beans. We are roughly 93% corn on corn.
- 1/22 - Lewis, Kan.: I don't really think it matters what condition our crops are in. One thing is guaranteed, next year, we will raise the second largest crop on record. Maybe the largest. No matter what, this is the same old BS the government always puts out to impress the foreign countries. Why ask all the questions about acres, etc when all they have to do is check the FCS records and get all the information they need. Why go through all the old question/answer sessions when they don't use the information honestly anyway. If this isn't the case, why have we been listening to market reports all year that stated if there is ANY, repeat ANY, problems with corn harvest or a weather problem, we will see the markets go through the roof. We need everything we can grow and then some. Now we have a few hundred million bushels still in the field (which by the way the GOV calls on-farm-storage) uncut and the whole market (wheat, beans and corn) going south big time. As far as I'm concerned, I hope we have a real crop crisis. Let's see what the rest of the world eats!!!
- 1/22 - Kearny County, Kan.: Well we could sure use some moisture! We planted our wheat in marginal moisture. We then received quite a bit of rain here in October and early November. It was a real cool fall. We have good stands, but our wheat really didn't get very big though. Since November we have had our coldest winter here in a long time. We haven't received any snow yet this winter. The wheat really got froze back. Some of the latter planted wheat almost looks like it never came up, but its still there. We had some horrible winds on Christmas day. We had part of one field blow really bad. The neighbor had some big weeds blow across us and got the dirt to blowing. There were several other neighbors lose some wheat also that day. We still have good deep moisture, but the top three to four inches is bone dry. With the freeze and thaw it is like a powder keg waiting to go off. I'm not looking forward to our big spring winds out here if we don't get some moisture. It could get pretty dirty out here. Usually by now people would be getting their fertilizer on for the upcoming corn crop but the ground is still frozen. Some have tried, but have broken shanks and disc blades.
- 1/22 - McPherson, Kan.: I find the monthly WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports interesting. That was the USDA report released Jan 12. As with most lengthy reports, one finds what they want to see. We have the fewest US wheat acres going into 2010 since 1913. That should have driven prices up, right? As you already noticed, old and new crop both dropped $.50 instead due to high ending stocks. Just goes to reinforce the reality that for every trade that occurs on the board, half the people think it is going higher and the other half think it will go lower. We can not out-guess the markets.
- 1/14 - Vernon, Texas: “It has been very cold here the last week. Temps have dipped into the teens and single digits at night. It had been hard on the smaller wheat. Nearly all of the snow is melted except in the ditches. The wheat has shut down because of the cold and the cows are getting ahead of it in some spots."
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-- Vernon, Texas
(Have any photos of the crops on your farm? Send them to AgWeb and have them posted on Crop Comments! Be sure to include a caption.)
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- 1/14 - Wilbur, Wash.: We are having a very mild winter this year. The cold air seems to be east of us 200-300 miles. It was 50F here today! With 12 inches of frost there is quite a bit of water running down the creek. No ditches in this area, but some areas around did get some ditch cutting before Christmas. No cover on the winter wheat has us nervous too!
- 1/14 - Mayfield, Kan.: Right now we have some wheat that looks pretty good, but about half of are acres don't, because we where not able to plant it do to wet conditions on time. We had to let some acres out, never could get planted. I am afraid that the little wheat may not make it do to very cold conditions and no cover on it.
- 1/8 - Ingham County, Mich.: To all you farmers getting protein discounts for wheat price of 1.00 dollar And dockage for sprouts above 1.00 think about burning your wheat. I burn wheat in my corn stove...it don't dock me...keeps me warm at 1 bushel per day. Try finding a fossil fuel that does that? By the way it burns better than corn. Hotter, dryer, cleaner. Good luck. Save some bucks and burn wheat…get meaner.
- 1/5 - Wilbur, Wash.: I raise soft white winter and spring wheats on 1700 acres, using a minimum-till/summerfallow rotation. Our crops look very promising right now with good soil moisture, and very full stands last fall. Not much snow has fallen and stayed in the area this year, and the ground has about 10"-12" of frost in it. We expect to lose the winter moisture because of the frost.
- 1/5 - Western Walsh county, northeast North Dakota: For the coming year, my son and I are discussing the pros and cons of which wheat varieties we should be planning on. Stick with the short height, high protein, higher management (fungicide twice) and give up a little yield? or go with the super high yields that might not stand as well, and have somewhat lower protein? Or plant some of each? In 2009 most of the hard red spring wheats had protein levels from 11.5%, up to a rare 14%. As a result, we are facing $1.50/ bu. discount for wheat in the 12% range (which a great many farmers have in their bins). We are leaning toward varieties with the best protein levels.
- 1/5 - Geary County, Kan.: Our wheat was planted late, last of Oct.-second week of Nov. It’s very small and we've had lots single digit temps. The snow would have helped if it would have stayed on the field and not in the road. It doesn't look too good for a big harvest now, but you do have to kill wheat five or six times for to be very good so we'll see.
Related Links
2009 Wheat Crop Comments
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